When the stock market is down 20-30% and it’s scary. It’s emotional. And the last thing most people want to do is stick their toe in shark-infested waters. I can hear those familiar voices: “I just saw my portfolio go down how much, and you’re telling me to do what?!” Or conversely, “Now’s the perfect time to sink all my money into stocks, right?” In some way, everyone is asking, “Should I invest right now?”
Let’s hold on a second and dig a little deeper. Because my response to any of those questions is: it depends.
I think some historical context is helpful here to make sense of the market movements. Since WWII, there have been 12 “bear markets” (defined as the stock market falling more than 20% from it’s high). What is unprecedented about this bear market is the speed at which it happened. Typically, a decline of 20% or more has taken anywhere from two months to almost two years to play out. The bear market of 2020 happened in just 33 short days! That kind of rate is a massive shock to the system.
Read: Stock Market Correction Guide to Staying Sane
The bottom line is that a bear market is quite normal (though never pleasant). So, let’s get to the central question: to buy or not to buy?
First, you need to answer three important questions:
- Do you have a comfortable amount in cash savings that can help you out in a worst-case scenario (e.g. you were out of work for some period of time), or do you have security at work (severance, tenure) that it’s not so much of a concern?
- Do you have any needs for the money over the next couple of years?
- Finally, are you comfortable knowing that you could be wrong, and that, in the short term, stocks could fall further, perhaps substantially so?
With those conditions met—and every situation is different—it may make sense for you to begin to invest when stocks are down. But remember, bear markets don’t recover quickly.
I’m always a fan of taking it slow. You don’t have to be a hero and plunk down all your money immediately. Do it cautiously and over time. That way, you’ll minimize your regret in case stocks do fall. Investing mindfully will also help you build comfort and confidence over time.
Read: Creating a Long Term Investment Plan: Tune Out the Noise
One thing is assured: if you can have the patience and stomach to sit it out, investing when markets are down can be some of the most lucrative long term decisions you’ll make.
Jim is a financial advisor and owner of Thinking Big Financial, Inc. Thinking Big Financial is a fee-only registered investment advisor offering financial planning and investment management services. Specializing in working with the LGBTQ Community.
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